How to Trade NFP and FOMC (Or Survive Them)

By Mohamed Amine Sououdi, Founder · 5 min read

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) and the FOMC rate decision are the two heavyweight scheduled events on the calendar. Both move interest-rate expectations, which move everything — currencies, gold, indices. In minutes they can hand you a great week or take one.

What they are

NFP is the monthly US jobs report, a read on the economy’s health. FOMC is the US central bank’s rate decision and, just as important, its guidance on the future path. Markets care most about the surprise versus what was expected, and about the tone of the guidance.

Option 1: stand aside

The simplest and often smartest choice. Volatility around these events is violent and two-sided; spreads widen and stops get run. Being flat through the release protects your account from a random whipsaw. There is no rule that you must trade.

Option 2: trade the aftermath

Let the first spike burn off — often the initial move reverses — then trade the direction the data actually implies once liquidity returns. You give up the first candle in exchange for a cleaner, more reliable move.

Option 3: reduce size and widen stops

If you must be in, cut your size and give the trade room, accepting that precision is impossible in that window. Never hold a tight-stopped, full-size position straight into these events.

Never get caught out

NEXALIONE’s economic calendar flags NFP, FOMC and other high-impact events with real actuals, so you always know when the storm is coming. Start free.

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